Artificial Intelligence - Myths And Truths
Geraldo Pereira Junior, Chief Information Officer, Ypê
Geraldo Pereira Junior, Chief Information Officer, Ypê
We live in days of great business uncertainty, a feeling of technological backwardness and especially, what will be the new hype, that we should know, delve into, invest time and money in so as not to be late. Recently we had the run to the metaverse, which is notably losing strength day by day. Now the new hype is artificial intelligence, driven especially by the launch of ChatGPT and its eventual competitors. Let's try to put some light on this movement, obviously not only using the credentials of the professional master's degree in artificial intelligence that I concluded in 2018, but also based on the experience accumulated over the last 30 years working in the area of Information Technology, when the internet was still arriving in South America.
The term artificial intelligence first appeared in 1950, in a study published by Alan Turing, considered by many to be the father of computing. The first important reflection to be made because only now, 70 years later, it looks like artificial intelligence will transform our lives definitively. In fact, what we have portrayed by history is a gradual advance. Let's see: in 1996, Deep Blue, the IBM supercomputer, would beat chess player Garry Kasparov. It was an epic challenge between man and machine. However, despite having lost the first game, Kasparov beat Deep Blue in the rest of the matches, making Deep Blue engineers go back to the drawing board, and improve their artificial intelligence program, and then, in 1997, beat Kasparov definitively.
In this hiatus between 1950 and 1997, processing power essentially grew, as Moore's law already predicted, in addition, of course, the academy did not stop researching on the subject, which certainly led to the success of Deep Blue. Just ahead in 2011, the Watson computer would go down in artificial intelligence history by defeating human opponents on the TV quiz show Jeopardy.
From there, until the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, we began to visualize the commercial use of artificial intelligence. However, still requiring significant investments and great uncertainty in obtaining results.
There will also be no risk-free investments in artificial intelligence. after all, as we can see, advances do not happen overnight, but they are happening, and each one will be useful and bring competitive advantages if understood and make sense within each operation
There were many projects that stopped along the way, or even reached the end without delivering what they promised. It was during the pandemic in Silicon Valley and I could clearly see the number of companies and people dedicated to exploring new technologies, and in particular artificial intelligence. It is quite clear that this is one of the few positive balances that the pandemic has left us, that is, a leap in the knowledge and use of technologies, whether in a personal or professional context.
In the book, The Technology Fallacy, The MIT Press, 2022, the authors make an interesting analogy with the movie, "The Wizard of Oz", where Dorothy, a girl from Kansas is carried by a cyclone to a whole new world. Dorothy did not make this choice, but nature took her to this new world, similarly, we no longer have the choice to remain in analog or in what we had as true a few years ago, especially speaking of computer science, the youngest of sciences. Just like Dorothy, organizations are under strong pressure from all sides, which ends up generating this feeling of technological backwardness. The pressure begins with competitors' initiatives, with the complex solutions of some technology providers and with startup conglomerates, which certainly terrifies investors.
Still, in the context of the Wizard of Oz, my recommendation is to be very cautious for companies that intend to delve into artificial intelligence, as Dorothy did, who, upon arriving in the new world, noticed that it was hopeless at first, but after giving it some time knew it to be better.
Certainly, standing still is not an option. There will also be no risk-free investments in artificial intelligence. After all, as we can see, advances do not happen overnight, but they are happening, and each one will be useful and bring competitive advantages if understood and make sense within each operation.
